Estonia: Social Democrats close gap on Centre Party in poll ratings

A new Emor poll shows Estonia's Social Democratic Party (SDE) has significantly gained ground, moving close to the Centre Party, whose rating has been declining in recent months. The survey was conducted by Emor between August 11 and 19 among 1,502 eligible voters nationwide, with a margin of error of about ±2.2%.

Isamaa remains firmly in first place with 26% support, its best result in Emor polling since January. The Centre Party was backed by 19% of respondents in August, down from 22% in June. The Social Democrats' support, meanwhile, rose from 14% in July to 18% in August, with the biggest gains among voters under 35. As a result, the gap between the Centre Party and the Social Democrats is now within the poll's margin of error.

Emor analyst Aivar Voog suggested the shift may be linked to the presidential election, in which the Social Democrats were first to clearly back the most popular candidate, Kersti... actually Eiki Nestor — no, the text names Ülle Madise — while the Centre Party backed the far less popular Tiit Land. Voog also noted the Centre Party's communication has been overshadowed by Isamaa in Tallinn, and that the Social Democrats' surges in support have historically proven short-lived.

The Centre Party's losses were concentrated among ethnic Estonian voters, whose support for the party fell from 13% in June to 8% in August. Among voters of other ethnic backgrounds, the Centre Party retains a dominant 67% share. The Reform Party (13%) and EKRE (12%) round out fourth and fifth place, both down from 14% in July. Isamaa's support dropped sharply in Tallinn, where the Centre Party led with 31% and the Social Democrats placed second with 24%. In August, 27% of respondents said they had not decided which party to support.