Estonian intelligence: Russia captured under 40 square kilometers of Ukrainian land in July

Estonia's Defense Forces Intelligence Center reports that Russia captured only 36–38 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July, roughly 15 times less than the 564 square kilometers seized in July of last year, according to its weekly briefing.

Casualties up nearly 30 percent

At the same time, Russian forces lost 42,860 fighters in July — a 29 percent increase from 33,220 a year earlier, averaging about 1,300 personnel lost per day. The intelligence center concluded that Russia has paid a very high price for every square kilometer gained and still has not managed to fully conquer the Donbas region.

The report also noted that Russia launched 4,951 drones and 381 missiles in long-range strikes during July, compared with 6,303 drones and 208 missiles a year earlier — an 83 percent rise in missile numbers.

Possible mobilization after elections

The center also addressed the long-discussed possibility of a new mobilization in Russia, saying Moscow has already taken legal and organizational preparatory steps. Russian authorities have published documents on conducting mobilization and organizing related records, and Russian companies and institutions are recruiting mobilization specialists. Citing U.S. officials, media reports suggest Russia may carry out a mobilization after the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 20.

Estonian intelligence warned that if Russia opts for mobilization, it could shift the balance of forces on the front in Russia's favor and increase pressure on Ukrainian units in autumn, when drone effectiveness declines due to weather and other reconnaissance and fire-support means become more important. Such a move could also affect the broader security situation in areas near Russia's borders.