Estonian coalition parties confident Madise could be elected president in Riigikogu vote

Representatives of Estonia's ruling Reform Party and Eesti 200, along with the opposition Social Democrats, say Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise could be elected president already in a Riigikogu vote if she agrees to run. Madise herself has so far stayed silent on whether she will stand as a candidate.

Reform Party MP Kristo Enn Vaga said the three parties together hold 66 votes, and at least three non-affiliated MPs are reportedly ready to back Madise. In private conversations, some Isamaa and Centre Party MPs have also indicated willingness to vote for her, which on paper would put support above the 68 votes needed for election.

Uncertainty remains

However, the president is elected by secret ballot, so there is no guarantee every MP will follow their party's line. Social Democrat Zuleikha Izmailova, who previously said she would not vote for Madise, still expresses reservations. She said she is not convinced the ruling parties already have enough votes and described public vote-counting, and the pressure it puts on MPs, as an affront to the democratic process.

The Riigikogu currently has seven non-affiliated MPs. They held a video meeting today on the presidential election and decided to remain neutral for now. MP Tõnis Mölder said the group will wait for Tuesday's meeting of the Riigikogu Council of Elders to see whether other candidates are named, then hold another discussion. Should Madise agree to run, the non-affiliated MPs want to meet her and hear her views on a range of issues before deciding their position ahead of the vote.

Sources in parliament believe Tuesday's Council of Elders meeting is also unlikely to bring final clarity on whether a new head of state can be elected on September 2.