Estonia's consumer prices climb 2% in June on year
Estonia's harmonized index of consumer prices rose by 2% year-on-year in June but fell 0.4% from May, according to preliminary data from Statistics Estonia.
Preliminary data from Statistics Estonia shows that the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), which includes tourist spending, decreased by 0.4% in June compared with May, while rising 2% compared with June 2025. The agency emphasized that these are preliminary estimates and will be refined as more data becomes available.
The consumer price index (CPI) is weighted based on the consumption patterns of Estonia's residents, while the harmonized index also includes spending by tourists and is comparable with international HICP.
According to Lauri Veski, head of consumer price statistics at Statistics Estonia, the preliminary data was most affected by lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as clothing and footwear, both month-on-month and year-on-year.
In May, consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year. Statistics Estonia will publish the June CPI on July 7, and the June HICP on July 16.
Luminor Chief Economist Lenno Uusküla said the June price decline was driven primarily by lower global oil prices, which also led to lower gasoline and diesel prices at Estonian gas stations. Oil, which traded at $70 per barrel before the active phase of the crisis in March and briefly climbed to $110, fell back to around $72 by the end of June. In June last year, oil prices averaged above $70 per barrel, roughly the same level as at the end of this June.
According to Uusküla, administratively driven price increases have run their course, and tax changes are no longer accelerating inflation. Food prices, which had previously been a major driver, are also trending downward. He noted that annual inflation has not been this low since April 2021. Going forward, only a moderate increase in inflation is expected over the rest of the year. If the peace agreement between the US, Israel and Iran is signed and holds, oil prices could remain low. Future price developments will depend on how climate change affects agriculture and on natural gas storage levels ahead of winter.
