Estonian political scientist: country unprepared for new-era challenges
Political scientist Tõnis Saarts argues Estonia clings too closely to the success formulas of past decades and lacks a strategy for shifts in security, the economy and technology. He warns the country's elite has no clear plan for navigating these changes.
Marking the 35th anniversary of the restoration of independence, Estonian political scientist Tõnis Saarts argues that Estonia has become a victim of its own past success, showing too much nostalgia for old models and too little appetite for risk or open debate about today's challenges.
Saarts identifies three major shifts confronting Estonia. First, in geopolitics, the era of soft security threats — indirect efforts to influence society — is giving way to hard security concerns, meaning a direct military threat to border states like Estonia. He notes that the Estonian public appears reluctant to accept a higher tax burden needed to fund costlier defense measures such as drones, artillery and ammunition.
A tiring economic model
The second shift concerns the economy. In the 1990s, Estonia embraced neoliberalism, an ideology favoring a minimal state, low taxes and market-driven solutions. Saarts argues this approach is increasingly hard to reconcile with sharply rising defense spending without risking a debt spiral. He points out that countries Estonia once looked down on — Lithuania, Romania and Croatia — have recently outpaced it economically, having adapted better to what he calls a post-neoliberal era, in which the state plays a larger strategic role in the economy.
The technology challenge
The third shift involves technology. Estonia's pride, its e-state model, belonged to the third industrial revolution, when small countries could excel by spotting technological trends early. Now, amid a fourth industrial revolution driven by artificial intelligence, the initiative lies with technology giants and major powers, leaving little room for small countries to stand out.
Saarts concludes that Estonia's earlier successes have entrenched attitudes and institutions that make adapting to new realities difficult. He also cites Isamaa party chair Urmas Reinsalu's remark at the recent Opinion Festival that the prevailing public mood is "no experiments," warning that the world will not wait while Estonia hesitates.
