Estonia's Reform Party gambles its last credibility card on new defense minister
Political scientist Tõnis Saarts argues that newly appointed Defence Minister Martin Herem could either restore trust in Estonia's Reform Party or deal a fatal blow to its reputation in defense policy. The coming six months will determine whether the party keeps its last strong competence argument ahead of elections.
Estonian political scientist Tõnis Saarts writes that the fate of the Reform Party in upcoming elections may hinge on how new Defence Minister Martin Herem performs. According to Saarts, the recent turmoil surrounding the Ministry of Defence is not merely another trust crisis but a threat to the one policy area where the party still held credibility.
Three pillars, now shaken
Saarts recalls that ahead of the 2023 elections, the Reform Party convinced voters of three strengths: economic competence, safeguarding the welfare state, and reliability in countering the Russian threat. The party's economic reputation has already been damaged by years of stagnation, tax hikes and fiscal troubles, while welfare policy was never its ideological core. That left defense and security as its last strong pillar — until a scandal near the end of Hanno Pevkur's tenure as minister cracked it.
The Herem factor
By appointing former Estonian Defence Forces commander Martin Herem as minister, the party made a bold move that could go either way, Saarts writes. A highly independent expert could uncover further problems and deal a devastating blow to the party's already fragile credibility — or, through effective reform, restore public trust.
The commentary outlines three possible scenarios. In the first, Herem finds that leadership, information flows and procurement have been disorganized for years, damaging the party's polished image. In the second, the party tries to shift blame onto Herem himself as a former commander, triggering mutual accusations that would hurt both sides and benefit Russia. In the third, Herem fixes the problems, allowing the party to campaign on having admitted mistakes and brought in top experts to solve them.
Saarts concludes that the next six months will determine not only the state of Estonia's national defense but also whether the Reform Party retains any policy area where voters still see it as the best option.
