Estonia's July ratings: Isamaa still leads, Reform party recovers at expense of Social Democrats

Rating changes in July

July political preference ratings in Estonia show that Isamaa maintains a stable lead with 24% support for the third consecutive month. The Centre Party is in second place with 20%, although it has lost some supporters.

The most significant changes occurred among the mid-tier parties. The Reform Party, which had been at a record low of just 10% for several months, increased its rating to 14% in July, a rise of two percentage points. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) lost the same amount, dropping from 16% to 14%. Thus, all three parties – Reform, SDE, and EKRE – are now tied at 14%.

The coalition party Eesti 200 remains below the electoral threshold at 2%. However, due to the Reform Party's increase, the total support for the ruling coalition reached 16%, the best result in three months. At the same time, the number of people with no party preference also grew – in July, exactly 25% of respondents were undecided.

Sociologist's explanation

Sociologist Aivar Voog from Emor believes that the Reform Party's rating increase can be partly attributed to former Social Democrat voters. Both parties represent a liberal worldview, so their potential electorates partially overlap. Depending on which party is more visible at a given time, these voters' preferences shift accordingly.

He also noted that the prime minister's party rating is always tied to the economic situation. If positive trends continue and consumers feel more confident, the Reform Party will have a basis to further improve its rating.

Party perspectives

Reform Party Secretary General Kristo Enn Vaga stated that voters have finally noticed the fruits of the ruling parties' economic and tax policies. Support for the Reform Party is particularly high among people over 65. He explained that Estonian pensioners know the Reform Party will not threaten their livelihoods, while other parties talk about freezing pensions. Moreover, older people remember life under foreign rule and therefore approve of the Reform Party's efforts to strengthen national defense and internal security.

SDE Vice-Chair Riina Sikkut disagreed that the rating changes reflect new trends. She said that a small seasonal decline or the Reform Party's rise is not significant, but she is more concerned about the growing share of voters without preferences – people who may be disappointed in politicians or governance. However, sociologist Voog noted that the proportion of undecided voters has remained at this level for a long time.