Estonian Election: Analysts Say Isamaa Is Losing Its Lead as Social Democrats Target Centre Party
Four months before Estonia's parliamentary election, party ratings have become less predictable as Isamaa loses ground. Political scientists say the Social Democrats will try to position themselves as the main alternative to the Centre Party.
Four months before Estonia's Riigikogu (parliament) election, the dynamics of party ratings have become harder to predict. The Isamaa ("Fatherland") party, which led the polls for a long time, has begun losing ground, according to ERR, citing the programme "Aktuaalne kaamera". The vote is scheduled for early March 2027.
Isamaa's "fatigue"
Political scientist Tõnis Lehtp compares the situation to the Tour de France cycling race. After the previous election Isamaa started strongly and held the lead for three years in a row, but then began to tire. In his view, rivals have caught up and some have even overtaken it, so Isamaa will find it difficult to change the current trend.
Prime minister candidates
In the latest poll on preferred prime minister, Centre Party leader Mihhail Kõlvart is first and Jonatan Vseviov, who recently joined the Social Democrats, is second. Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu has dropped to third.
Political scientist Rein Toomla notes that Kõlvart and Vseviov have little chance of becoming prime minister, since this requires both experience and the support of other parties. He believes Isamaa and Reinsalu still hold the better position. Toomla points out that Reinsalu has government experience, but must be careful with potential allies; he is convinced that Isamaa's best partners remain its old allies, the reformists and the Social Democrats.
The Social Democrats' strategy
Lehtp argues that the Social Democrats will try to win by setting themselves against the Centre Party rather than Isamaa. Their aim would be to present Vseviov and the party as the main alternative to the Centre Party and Kõlvart, urging those who do not want the Centre to win to vote for the Social Democrats. This would push Reinsalu and Isamaa, as well as the Reform Party and its leader Kristen Michal, out of the main political contest.
The analysts stress that in the current turbulent period it is extremely hard to forecast the real outcome of the election.
