Estonian officer: Russia losing more troops in Ukraine than it can replace

Estonian Defense Forces Lieutenant Colonel Mattias Puusepp says Russia is losing more soldiers in Ukraine each month than it can replace, which he cites as the main reason no major summer offensive materialized this year, despite earlier expectations.

Puusepp noted that even modest Russian advances rely on a willingness to sacrifice thousands of troops for gains as small as a single square kilometer. He compared the current period to a year ago: last August, Russia captured roughly 460 square kilometers while losing about 30,000 men, whereas this August, according to Ukrainian figures, Russia lost 42,000 men while gaining far less ground. This, he said, shows Ukraine's defensive and counter-strike capabilities have improved considerably, while Russia has found no way to speed up its advance.

With monthly losses exceeding 40,000 against a replenishment rate of around 30,000, Russia faces a significant manpower deficit, which Puusepp said is a key reason for the slowdown. He added that this summer saw no genuine successful offensive, only localized skirmishes without meaningful operational gains.

Puusepp also addressed the possibility of a new conscription wave or general mobilization, an option Russian President Vladimir Putin has downplayed. Any such move, he said, would likely wait until after this month's Russian Duma elections and could bring roughly half a million additional personnel, though from an increasingly reluctant pool of recruits. He suggested these conscripts would receive only minimal equipment and training, likely being deployed to plug gaps on the front line rather than forming cohesive units — in some cases being sent to the front within days of recruitment.

Overall, the front line remains stable with only minor shifts. The war has now lasted 236 weeks, with around 265 combat engagements occurring daily. The most active areas remain Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Lyman in Donetsk oblast, and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Puusepp noted that Putin's statements of success are primarily intended for a domestic audience, to justify the losses sustained.