Ijabs warns: Russia's hybrid threats to Baltics persist, though direct war with NATO less likely
European Parliament member Ivars Ijabs states that Russia's hybrid threats to the Baltic states remain, even though a direct military conflict with NATO is currently less likely. He urges continued vigilance and defense strengthening.
Russia has long maintained the narrative that its war in Ukraine is directed not only against Kyiv but also against the entire NATO alliance. Although a direct military clash with NATO is currently considered less probable, hybrid threats persist, warns Ivars Ijabs, a doctor of political science and member of the European Parliament.
In an interview on the TV24 program “Ziņu TOP,” Ijabs reminded that before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many experts did not believe Moscow would take such a step. Therefore, one should not fully rely on the absence of visible signs of military escalation at NATO's borders.
He noted that various hybrid attacks are now more likely: cyberattacks, sabotage attempts, damage to undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea, drone incidents, and airspace violations. Ijabs emphasized that the possibility of a direct military attack on NATO countries is lower because Russia would have to consider the alliance's response.
Highlighting the geographical position of the Baltic states, he mentioned Estonia's proximity to St. Petersburg, which, in his view, is a factor Russia takes into account. He acknowledged that NATO's deterrence mechanism has been working so far but called for avoiding complacency.
“That should not comfort us or put us to sleep,” Ijabs said, stressing that countries must continue strengthening defense and deterrence capabilities while avoiding both excessive panic and unwarranted reassurance.
