Ilves: Europe must develop its own grand strategy as Pax Americana ends
Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves warns of the 'normalcy bias' and urges Europe to craft a grand strategy, as the US-led post-war order—Pax Americana—is quietly coming to an end.
In a lecture, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves highlighted the concept of 'normalcy bias', a psychological defense mechanism that leads people to underestimate danger and assume things will remain unchanged. He cited historical examples: in the 1980s, both the Soviet Politburo and CIA analysts believed the USSR was stable; in 1939, Estonia's leaders thought neutrality would spare them from WWII; and Stefan Zweig's memoir 'The World of Yesterday' describes pre-WWI Vienna as a 'golden age of security' that nobody thought could end.
Ilves argued that the era of Pax Americana—the liberal, rules-based international order established by the US after WWII—is ending. Washington no longer sees itself as the benevolent hegemon; its recent National Security Strategy and actions indicate that Europe has become secondary. The US is now abandoning the very rules and principles it once championed.
He criticized Europe for complacency: it prided itself as a regulatory superpower but fell behind the US and China in innovation and technology. Europe failed to invest enough in defense and technology, which are now crucial for security. The debate on military shortcomings is necessary but insufficient; Europe must look beyond immediate concerns.
Ilves called for Europe to overcome parochial thinking and implement profound—even revolutionary—changes to ensure its survival. He noted that Estonia's independence, after 35 years, is no longer self-evident; citizens must overcome their own normalcy bias to preserve it.
