India's fertility rate falls below replacement level: career and costs key drivers

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 births per woman, according to the latest report from the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner. This is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. In the 2000s, the TFR was about 3.3.

Several factors are behind the decline. More women are prioritizing careers and education, delaying or forgoing children altogether. Jyotsna Mirlay, a consultant gynaecologist in Bengaluru, notes that educated, financially independent women no longer buy into traditional narratives that equate marriage and children with a settled life. Couples like Nidhi Agarwal, 41, who runs a PR company, consciously choose to remain child-free to focus on broader societal impact.

Rising living costs are another critical factor. India's average annual income is $2,878 (about $240 per month), while monthly expenses excluding rent are around $290. Roopa, a 36-year-old team leader at an electronics firm, says she wants to provide a good quality of life for potential children but must carefully consider financial stability amid inflation. Consumer price inflation reached 3.48% in April.

Declining infant mortality – from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 in 2024 – also reduces the drive to have more children. However, regional disparities are stark: poor states like Bihar, with low education and high infant mortality, have a TFR of 2.9, while Delhi, with high education and low infant mortality, has 1.2.

Infertility is rising, from 22.4% in 1992-93 to 30.7% in 2015-16, linked to lifestyle changes such as obesity and hormonal imbalances. Many women are opting for egg freezing to postpone motherhood.

The central government has not yet announced a nationwide pronatalist policy. Some states, such as Andhra Pradesh, offer cash incentives for third and fourth children, while Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana fund IVF centers for first-time parents. Experts argue that addressing underlying causes like cost of living and career constraints is essential.