Iran war and US foreign policy: tensions rise in the Middle East and Ukraine
A Guardian analysis describes how the US-Israeli war on Iran, launched in February, is affecting the global economy and the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump's foreign policy faces criticism, while Russia seeks to exploit the situation.
An analysis published by the British newspaper The Guardian on 31 October examines how conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere are intertwined, making diplomatic solutions harder to reach. At its centre is the war on Iran, started in late February by the administration of US President Donald Trump together with Israel.
Admission of unintended consequences
Tom Barrack, Trump's envoy to Turkey and adviser on Middle East matters, said in Doha last week that the war had turned "camp fires into forest fires". He noted that US interventions in the region over past decades, including in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, had not produced the desired results.
Economic fallout
The analysis's author argues the war has helped push global inflation to 4%. The strait of Hormuz, open to commercial shipping for centuries, has become a bargaining chip for Iran. A barrel of Brent crude has reached $117, 50% above prewar levels. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Saudi Arabia's GDP will shrink by 3.3%, whereas growth of 1.7% was expected in July. On 30 September the Saudi government raised its 2026 budget deficit projection to $65.3bn.
Ukraine and Russia's interest
The analysis says Trump, seeking to deflect blame for high energy prices, turned on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and criticised Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries. He announced a 60-day "energy truce" that neither Zelenskyy nor Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to. Ukrainian forces lost their previous access to the military-grade version of Starlink, and US officials gave conflicting explanations.
Russia has proposed a three-way summit of China, Russia and the US in Shenzhen, China, on 18 November. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov visited Tehran on 19 October. Trump has invited Putin to the G20 summit this winter, to be hosted at his golf club near Miami.
