ISW: Russia likely launched this year's strikes on Ukraine's energy sites earlier than usual
Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say Russia has likely begun a renewed campaign of strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure earlier than in previous years. The think tank says this reflects a shift in Kremlin strategy.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment that Russia has likely already begun a broader campaign of strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and that this year the campaign appears to have started earlier than in previous stages of the war.
A shift in approach
ISW analysts note that this points to changes in how the Kremlin is pursuing the war. According to the think tank, battlefield successes by Ukrainian forces have forced Russian leader Vladimir Putin to reconsider the original strategy he had relied on to secure victory.
Because Russia has not achieved the territorial gains it had hoped for along the front line, Moscow is now leaning more heavily on long-range strikes, the institute said. The apparent aim of these strikes is to weaken Ukraine's energy system and thereby try to pressure Kyiv into surrender or into accepting terms favorable to Russia.
Context
Over the past several years, Russia has repeatedly carried out large-scale missile and drone campaigns against Ukraine's power grid, particularly in autumn and winter, when electricity and heating supplies are critical for civilians. ISW's observations suggest this year's campaign began earlier than usual, which may indicate an intensified Russian push to achieve results ahead of the winter season or any potential negotiations.
The think tank's assessment is based on available information and analysis of battlefield developments, though Russia's precise military intentions cannot be confirmed with full certainty.
