ISW: Putin Overstates Russian Gains in Ukraine 45-Fold
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says Russia's real gains in Ukraine since early 2026 are 45 times smaller than Vladimir Putin claims. Putin cites 6,500 square kilometres and 310 settlements.
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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank that analyses military operations and reports on the course of the war in Ukraine, has concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin greatly exaggerates his army's achievements on the front line. According to the institute, the real gains are 45 times smaller than the Kremlin claims.
What Putin claims
Putin says that since the start of 2026 the Russian army has captured 6,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory and 310 populated places. These figures reflect Moscow's official account of its advance.
What ISW says
The ISW report states that the occupying forces' actual gains are 45 times smaller than the figures Putin named. Applying that ratio to the territory figure would imply roughly 144 square kilometres, although the source text does not specify how the institute arrived at its own calculation.
Why it matters
Statements by Russia's leadership about captured territory shape perceptions of the war both inside Russia and abroad. Assessments by independent analytical centres make it possible to compare official claims with the situation at the front and show how far they depart from reality.
