Israel election too close to call as exit polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs neck and neck

Israel's election for the Knesset, the country's 120-seat parliament, was too close to call on Tuesday night. Exit polls, which are surveys of voters leaving polling stations, suggest the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, may narrowly win more seats than the right and far-right coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The outcome is likely to trigger weeks of coalition bargaining, or possibly another round of elections.

Turnout and projections

Some commentators have described the vote as the most consequential in Israel's history. Turnout was the highest in 50 years: by 6pm, 74.3% of more than 7 million eligible voters had cast ballots, roughly 9% more than at the previous election. Participation among Israeli Arab voters was also a record. The exit polls indicate that Netanyahu's Likud will probably be the largest single party, yet neither side has a clear route to a majority. Arab parties are projected to win up to 18 seats and could become kingmakers in the talks. Netanyahu may fall short of the support needed to form a new coalition.

Dispute on election day

Netanyahu and several other parties tried to keep polling stations open beyond the 10pm deadline, but the Central Elections Committee rejected the request. The prime minister publicly suggested that the "left and Arabs" were trying to steal the election, and Likud claimed suspected irregularities at hundreds of polling stations in Arab areas. The committee said it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering. Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of lies and fearmongering.

Background

The election was framed as a referendum on almost 17 years of Netanyahu's rule. Since Hamas's attack on 7 October 2023, Israel has fought a war in Gaza in which more than 74,000 Palestinians have died, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon and launched a war against Iran together with the US. Netanyahu remains on trial for corruption. Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said that Arab votes would change the government.