New French poll: Philippe slips to third behind Mélenchon
A Cluster 17 poll for POLITICO on the 2027 French presidential election shows former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe losing three points and trailing left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally remains the clear first-round frontrunner.
Former French Prime Minister and Le Havre mayor Édouard Philippe, who is positioning himself as the centrist candidate for the 2027 presidential election, has lost ground in a new poll and now sits in third place. The survey was conducted by the polling firm Cluster 17 for POLITICO from 19 to 20 October. Compared with the previous poll on 15–16 September, Philippe's support fell from 19% to 16%.
Mélenchon best placed for a runoff
Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the left-wing France Unbowed party is almost unchanged at 18.5% (down 0.5 points). According to the poll, he is currently best positioned to reach the second round against Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN), whatever the candidate configuration.
Le Pen is the clear first-round favorite: with Philippe representing the centrist bloc, she would receive 33% (up from 31%). The poll's authors note that her support apparently did not suffer from the reports published by Mediapart in late September about antisemitic writings attributed to RN politician Jordan Bardella.
Other candidates
Social democrat Raphaël Glucksmann, who recently won the first round of the primary held by the Socialist Party and Place publique, rose from 12% to 13%. Cluster 17 president Jean-Yves Dormagen explains that Philippe does not speak enough to the social-democratic wing of the moderate camp.
Republicans candidate Bruno Retailleau remains at 7.5–8%. When Cannes mayor David Lisnard of Nouvelle Énergie is also included, he reaches 8%, taking votes from Le Pen (30.5%), Retailleau (7%) and Éric Zemmour (3.5%, down from 4%).
In a scenario where Renaissance secretary general Gabriel Attal runs instead of Philippe, he would get 12% (previously 13.5%), Mélenchon 19.5% and Glucksmann 14%.
The poll surveyed 3,000 people aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of 0.8 to 1.8 points.
