Ethiopia's new rebel alliance against Abiy Ahmed risks falling apart
Former rival armed groups in Ethiopia have joined forces against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but disputes over territory, power and command threaten to unravel the new coalition.
Several armed groups in Ethiopia that previously fought one another have formed a new alliance united by shared opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The coalition suggests resistance to the central government has become broader and more coordinated than before, though observers note that the unity holding the group together remains fragile.
Sources of friction
The alliance faces several internal disagreements. Member groups have not agreed on control over territory, with each faction viewing certain areas as its own sphere of influence. There are also disputes over how political power would be shared should the opposition succeed against Abiy Ahmed's government. A third point of contention concerns command structure — which group would take the lead in coordinating joint military and political action.
Because these factions were until recently adversaries, mutual trust remains limited, raising the risk that their current unity may not hold over time.
An old problem resurfacing
Disputes over territory, power and command have repeatedly undermined opposition coalitions in Ethiopia in the past, which is why the newly formed alliance is described as confronting an old problem in a new guise. Whether its members can reach compromise will determine if the alliance can maintain a united front against Abiy Ahmed's government, or whether internal rivalries will fracture it before it becomes a significant force.
