Kaljulaid: Putin may be preparing to widen the war

Estonian politician Raimond Kaljulaid writes that following a recent visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, a debate has resurfaced in Estonia over how seriously to take warnings that Russia may soon be planning larger-scale provocations against NATO countries, potentially including military attack.

Ratcliffe, seen as close to US President Donald Trump, is believed to have traveled to Moscow partly to warn Russia against aggressive moves toward Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Kaljulaid argues these warnings should be taken seriously, since Putin currently finds himself in a situation with no good way out: Russia has failed to break Ukraine militarily, has failed to undermine European solidarity with Ukraine, and has made no diplomatic breakthrough either — hopes that Washington might pressure Kyiv into concessions have not materialized, with US support for Ukraine instead growing firmer.

Three possible paths

The author outlines three options open to Putin. The first is simply continuing a war of attrition, betting that time favors Russia, given that polls in key European countries — France, Germany and Britain — point to rising support for populist parties potentially more sympathetic to Russian demands.

The second option is agreeing to a truce and softening Russia's previously uncompromising demands. But this carries risk: Russians could start asking why the war was fought at all if Putin retreats from his own stated goals. The author notes that weakness shown by Russian rulers has historically ended badly, citing Tsar Nicholas II's execution, the 1682 Streltsy uprising, and the failed August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.

A riskier third path

Kaljulaid compares Putin's position to a gambler who, having lost a fortune, stakes his last savings and risks losing everything. Similarly, Putin might decide that in the standoff with Ukraine and the West, it is time to bet everything — concluding there is nowhere left to retreat and no room for compromise.

If this is indeed Putin's plan and an escalation is being prepared, the author concludes that Russia's military and security services are likely already making preparations — and that the Americans may know more about these plans than the rest of the world does.