Canada drafts contingency plan for unlikely US invasion scenario

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed last week that his government has considered a once-unthinkable scenario: a potential US military attack on Canada. In an interview with the New York Times, he said the likelihood is low, but that a responsible government must weigh every possibility given how the US-Canada relationship is being reshaped under President Donald Trump.

Carney described this as simple risk management. Trump's sweeping tariffs and repeated suggestions that Canada could become the 51st US state have pushed Canada's military to war-game a possible attack. Trump himself said in 2025 that using force against Canada was highly unlikely, saying he would instead rely on economic pressure to achieve political goals. This week, the White House told the BBC that Trump has done more than anyone to protect Canadians.

Experts say war would be complicated

Military experts say an invasion remains a long shot, citing deep defence cooperation between the two nations, including shared Nato membership and joint operation of the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD). Retired Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a 34-year veteran of the Royal Canadian Air Force, said he never once considered a US territorial attack during his career, and believes any future conflict would more likely begin with cyberwarfare than an armed assault.

Fear of American expansion has deep roots in Canadian history. US forces attempted to capture Montreal and Quebec City before Canada's founding, and launched repeated invasions during the War of 1812. After World War I, Canada also drew up a secret contingency plan against a possible US attack.

A newer theoretical model, reported by the Globe and Mail, suggests Canada's strategic positions could be overwhelmed within a week of a US assault, forcing a shift to guerrilla tactics and reliance on allies such as France and Britain. Canada's defence chief has recently called for a major expansion of the armed forces, including up to 300,000 lightly trained citizen soldiers. A January poll by Leger found that over 30% of Canadians believe a US invasion is likely.