War on Iran: Who reaped the biggest profits?
A four-month conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran has created massive windfalls for energy companies, defense contractors, shipping firms, insurers, and Wall Street banks, while prediction markets face insider trading allegations.
Energy firms
Since the strikes began, oil prices spiked, with Brent crude briefly touching $126 a barrel before falling back to pre-war levels. Energy giants posted huge gains: Saudi Aramco's Q1 profit rose 25% to $32.5bn; BP's doubled to $3.2bn; Shell earned $6.9bn; and TotalEnergies reported $5.4bn. Companies that bypassed the Strait of Hormuz via alternative pipelines or terminals maintained exports and benefited from higher prices.
Defense contractors
The defense sector saw a surge in orders. Boeing's revenue climbed 14% to $22.2bn, and Northrop Grumman's backlog hit a record $95.6bn. President Trump approved a $500bn defense budget increase, and Secretary Hegseth requested an additional $200bn. Top beneficiaries included Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman.
Shipping and insurance
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sent freight rates soaring. The benchmark Middle East Gulf to East Asia route jumped from 100 to over 500 Worldscale points. Tanker operator Frontline reported revenues of $536m, while DHT Holdings secured charter rates above $100,000 per day. War-risk insurance premiums quintupled to 1.5% of vessel value, benefiting insurers like Gard, Skuld, and NorthStandard.
Wall Street banks
The six largest US investment banks collectively earned nearly $48bn in Q1 2026. JPMorgan's profit rose 13% to $16.5bn, while Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo each posted over $5bn. Much of the gains came from fixed income, currency, and commodity trading desks.
Prediction markets
Polymarket faced scrutiny after suspicious trades were placed moments before Trump announced a ceasefire. A Yale University analysis found that flagged accounts won nearly 70% of bets, with estimated profits of $143m, suggesting insider trading.
