Kariņš: 'New Unity' exit poll result is devastating

An exit poll of voters who cast ballots on Saturday suggests the New Unity party (JV) may have received just 6.7% of the vote in the 15th Saeima elections — a steep fall from the 18.97% it won in the 2022 parliamentary elections. Former Prime Minister and former JV member Krišjānis Kariņš commented on the figures, describing them as devastating, even as former party colleagues are reportedly trying to present the news in a positive light.

Kariņš said that with such numbers, the party is effectively back to where it stood in 2018, adding that a clearer picture will emerge once official results are published. He linked the decline to a recent and conspicuous lack of leadership within the party. He also said former Prime Minister Evika Siliņa had, over the past three years, contributed to the party's falling ratings, and pointed to several tactical mistakes, including a delayed decision to replace the party's prime ministerial candidate with Arvils Ašeradens. In his assessment, the party has failed to resolve internal relationships, its future direction, or who will lead it.

By contrast, Kariņš said the United List (AS) managed to convince a significant number of voters, which he attributed to the party's recent rise to power shortly before the election and the visibility that came with it. He described the preliminary results for the other parties as unsurprising and broadly consistent with pre-election polling, while cautioning that final results could still shift, by larger or smaller margins.

Poll results

The exit poll, conducted by LETA together with Latvian Public Media (LSM) and Riga Stradiņš University (RSU), surveyed more than 6,500 voters at over 70 polling stations. It showed the United List winning decisively with 35.6% support, followed by Latvia First (11.3%), the Progressives (11.1%), Sovereign Power/Jaunlatvieši (10.8%), the National Alliance (8.7%) and New Unity (6.7%). The Green and Farmers' Union (3.7%), Latvia's Development (3.1%) and We Change the Rules (3%) fell below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. The remaining parties each received under 2%. Thirty percent of respondents declined to disclose their choice. Final seat distribution will depend on official results from the Central Election Commission.