Keating says Aukus locks Australia into US-China war it would 'certainly lose'

Former Australian prime minister and Aukus critic Paul Keating has said the trilateral submarine agreement between Australia, the UK and the US locks Australia into any future US conflict with China — a war he says America would "certainly lose" — while making Australia a target for retaliation.

Keating's comments followed remarks this week in Washington from Republican congressman Michael McCaul, a China hawk and co-chair of the Congressional Friends of Australia caucus. McCaul said Australia is already a target for US adversaries, but argued that deeper integration with the US military would protect Australia rather than leave it more exposed.

McCaul also said it was "logical to assume" that US nuclear-powered submarines rotating through Australian bases could carry nuclear weapons after 2032, and that Australia's participation in a US war against China over Taiwan is assumed within the US military establishment. He visited Australia this month, meeting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

Keating said that even if the US lost such a war, it would "scuttle itself back to San Diego," leaving Australia exposed to Chinese retaliation for having taken part in the conflict. He argued that Australia's deepening military enmeshment with the US, particularly through Aukus, is effectively "shredding" the country's sovereignty.

The Guardian previously reported that the US military and affiliated corporate interests control or have access to more than 100 military bases across Australia — more than half of the country's military installations. In parliament, Greens senator David Shoebridge criticised McCaul's description of Australia as a "beachhead" against China, warning that people die and destruction occurs at beachheads in wars fought on someone else's behalf.

Under the first pillar of the Aukus agreement, Australia is set to buy up to five US Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines starting in 2032, before deploying a new, UK-designed Aukus-class submarine from the early 2040s. The program is forecast to cost Australia up to A$368bn by the mid-2050s.