Kõlvart sees no problem in Estonian Centre Party's falling ratings

Support for Estonia's Centre Party has been falling for four consecutive months, dropping to 17 percent in September from 22 percent at the start of summer, according to polling firm Emor. The shift is most visible in Tallinn, where the Social Democratic Party has drawn nearly level with the Centre Party — 26 percent of respondents in the capital back the Centre Party, against 23 percent for the Social Democrats.

Emor analyst Aivar Voog attributes the decline mainly to changes among non-Estonian voters. Nationwide, however, the Centre Party still holds a commanding lead among non-Estonians, supported by 63.9 percent of respondents in that group.

Centre Party chairman Mihhail Kõlvart emphasized that the party's overall support remains steady. He described the trend as one of consistent, gradual growth rather than sharp swings, saying the party maintains a fairly high plateau of support.

Views on the Russian-speaking electorate

Political commentator and DV.ee editor-in-chief Olesya Lagashina said it is premature to speak of a serious loss of Russian-speaking voters at a pace that would pose a real problem for the party. She noted the Centre Party did lose some support after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when political positions among Russian-speaking voters became more divided, but said the current decline does not yet indicate a large-scale departure of that electorate.

Comparing party support along ethnic lines is also becoming harder because of shifting self-identification among voters. Sociologists say young people whose native language is Russian increasingly identify as Estonian. Social Democrat Yevgeni Ossinovski confirmed this trend, saying the younger, more educated and active segment of Russian-speaking society increasingly resembles its Estonian-speaking peers.

Meanwhile, around 30 percent of respondents in Emor's September survey have yet to settle on their political preferences.