Kremlin Sets Stage for New Mobilization Wave, Prepares for Potential Unrest
The US Institute for the Study of War concludes that Russian authorities are creating conditions for a new mobilization wave for the war in Ukraine while simultaneously preparing internal security forces to suppress possible protests.
According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is actively laying the groundwork for a new wave of mobilization. At the same time, it is preparing for potential unrest and riots in Russia that such a move could trigger.
In July, the Russian State Duma adopted controversial amendments to legislation that now allow the Ministry of Defense to sign military service contracts with individuals who have not yet had their criminal records expunged. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin stated that these changes will expand the pool of potential recruits and facilitate the recruitment of soldiers for the war in Ukraine by 2026.
Analysts believe these legislative changes indicate the Kremlin’s efforts to broaden the pool of potential soldiers while preparing for a wider mobilization as early as this autumn. The Russian leadership is aware that a new draft could be the last straw for public patience and spark widespread protests. Consequently, authorities are seeking indirect ways to replenish the army while simultaneously preparing internal security forces to suppress any civil unrest at its earliest stages.
