Russia ramps up missile strikes on Ukraine as interception capacity falls short
Over the past month Russia has intensified missile strikes on Ukrainian warehouses, factories and port infrastructure, while Ukraine's supply of Patriot interceptors is failing to keep pace with the threat.
Russian air strikes on Ukraine are increasingly targeting warehouses, factories and logistics hubs, including port infrastructure. While Ukraine's air defense has learned to counter long-range drones, it has little capability left to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles.
Sergiy Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian president known by the call sign "Flash," said Russia has noticeably increased its missile strikes over the past month. By his estimate, Russia is capable of launching around 100 ballistic missiles a month, and that number has currently been raised, partly by drawing on reserves, to produce a demonstrative effect. That would imply Russia needs to produce more than a thousand ballistic missiles a year.
Fabian Hoffmann, an expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, estimates a more realistic figure of 600 to 800 ballistic missiles annually, including short-range Iskander-M and medium-range Kinzhal missiles.
A shortage of interceptors
Intercepting ballistic missiles requires Patriot systems, but ammunition for them is in short supply not only for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the United States, as the main producer, supplies missiles monthly under existing agreements, but not in sufficient quantities. He also noted that South Korea and Japan have not provided air defense assistance during the war, citing their domestic legislation.
According to data published by Beskrestnov, the global stockpile of PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot systems totals roughly 4,000 to 5,000 units, but those who hold them are in no hurry to share. About 60 new Patriot missiles are produced each month, and Ukraine is seeking a license to manufacture them domestically. US President Donald Trump said the question of transferring the technology is still under discussion and requires caution.
Hoffmann explains that intercepting a single ballistic missile ideally requires two to three interceptors, meaning Ukraine would need 1,600 to 2,400 Patriot interceptors per year — a number he says would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to reach even with domestic production.
