Post-election utility rate hikes push Russian inflation above central bank's 2026 forecast
Weekly inflation in Russia hit 0.96% from September 29 to October 5, with annual inflation reaching 7.1%. The jump was driven by higher housing and utility rates introduced on October 1, soon after the State Duma elections.
Russia's statistics agency Rosstat reports that prices rose by an average of 0.96% in the week of September 29 to October 5. Annual inflation reached 7.1%.
The main driver was an increase in housing and utility rates that took effect on October 1, shortly after the State Duma elections. The Economic Development Ministry estimates that the hikes added 0.75 percentage points to weekly inflation.
Forecasts exceeded
According to The Bell, annual inflation of 7.1% is above both the upper end of the Bank of Russia's 2026 forecast range (6–7%) and the Economic Development Ministry's own forecast of 6.8%.
Regional differences
The rates rose on schedule on October 1. Housing and utility bills went up by 9.9% on average across the country, though increases varied by region. The steepest rise was in Stavropol Krai, at 22%. Residential gas prices rose by 9.6% and electricity by 11.3% on average nationwide.
Plans for next year
On September 24, right after the Duma elections, the Economic Development Ministry said utility rates would increase by an average of 11% starting July 1, 2027. Previously, the ministry had forecast an 8.7% rise for next year. It said it revised the figure because of accelerating inflation and larger projected increases in gas and electricity tariffs.
