Crisis simulation game tests three parties' decision-making in fictional emergency

As part of the "Aizliegtais paņēmiens" (Forbidden Method) project, a pre-election simulation game called "X stunda Silgalē" ("Hour X in Silgale") was held, requiring participants to make decisions within an invented crisis scenario. Three teams took part, representing the Green and Farmers' Union (ZZS), the National Alliance (NA), and the "Stabilitātei!" (For Stability!) party.

Participants faced a series of difficult choices, ranging from apologizing to the widow of a deceased person to deciding whether to deploy the National Guard (Zemessardze) within the town, and requesting NATO consultations after receiving threats. The tasks were designed to test how political forces would act if a real crisis unfolded on the eve of elections.

Experts' assessment

Political scientist Jānis Ikstens, evaluating the actions of all three teams, concluded that each demonstrated an understanding of how serious the situation was. This suggests the participants recognized the need for an appropriate response to an escalating crisis rather than treating it lightly.

Mārtiņš Vargulis, a lecturer at Riga Stradiņš University and leading partner at the analytics group "PowerHouse Latvia," highlighted two areas for improvement. First, he pointed out that communication with the public during a crisis should begin earlier, rather than only after the situation has already become critical. Second, Vargulis urged teams to more carefully anticipate the risks that could arise at the next stage of an escalating crisis, so that decisions remain sound not just in the moment but over the longer term.

The exercise is part of a broader pre-election initiative aimed at testing political parties' ability to act under unforeseen, complex circumstances.