Wheat Prices Fall on Exchanges While Polish Domestic Market Climbs
Wheat prices on exchanges are falling because of fund profit-taking and hopes of a Black Sea reopening. In Poland's domestic market prices are rising, as grain supply is limited and feed mills are driving demand.
Wheat prices on exchanges are declining, yet the physical market in Europe and Poland is moving in a different direction. Mirosław Marciniak, a grain market analyst at the Polish consultancy InfoGrain, explained this to the farming portal farmer.pl. In his view, the exchange drop is driven by profit-taking by investment funds, hopes that the Black Sea may be unblocked, and weak export demand for US wheat.
Funds and the Black Sea
The price increase since late July was largely tied to concerns about grain supplies from the Black Sea region. Funds built long positions, meaning they bet on rising prices. When news emerged of possible negotiations and de-escalation, investors changed their stance. One trigger was an announcement on 28 October that grain shipments through the Sea of Azov are temporarily allowed until 15 November. Marciniak notes this does not mean a lasting opening of the route: in his view, the Russians are letting out cargo that has sat on ships since July, which risks quality deterioration.
US and EU exports
US wheat has benefited less from the Black Sea restrictions than expected. Export pace is held back by weaker demand, a strong dollar, and competition from Argentina and Australia in Asian markets. Europe, according to the analyst, has gained more. He considers European Commission data incomplete, since French data have been partial for three years; he says French exports outside the EU are closer to 1.5 million tonnes, not 100,000. Based on data available to him, EU wheat exports are about 26% higher than in the previous season.
The Polish market
On the Paris exchange, prices have fallen by about 25–27 euros per tonne from local peaks, but in Poland's domestic market prices have risen by roughly 30–40 zlotys since early September. Supply is not growing alongside demand. The price gap between milling and feed wheat is minimal, because there is little typical feed wheat this year and feed mills often use high-protein milling wheat. Marciniak argues that these mills, not flour mills, now set the price.
Egypt and Poland's chances
Egypt, a major wheat importer, is seeking alternatives to Russia and Ukraine. Romania and Bulgaria have quality problems this season, so buyers are turning to France and the Baltic region. For Poland this is an opportunity, but it depends on delivery costs, price and reliability. Marciniak says exports could reach as much as two million tonnes if Poland stays competitive.
