Lebanon caught between Iran and Israel: Can Egypt's plan break the deadlock?
Lebanon faces an impossible choice as talks with Israel continue in Washington. An Egyptian-backed three-phase plan aims to transform Hezbollah into a political entity, but experts remain deeply skeptical.
As Lebanese government representatives begin another round of talks with Israeli counterparts in Washington this week, their country finds itself in an increasingly dire situation. Fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has displaced over a million people, killed thousands, and caused an estimated $1.4 billion in damage. A ceasefire is currently holding, but Israel says it plans to maintain a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon to protect its citizens.
Iran, which supports Hezbollah, wants the fighting to stop and has made respect for Lebanese sovereignty a condition of its recent memorandum with the US. However, Lebanon sees Iran's maneuver as an infringement on its own sovereignty, as neither Hezbollah nor Lebanon were involved in the US-Iran talks. Critics of the direct Lebanon-Israel negotiations say Israel's demands would leave Lebanon beholden to its neighbor, and forcing the Lebanese army to confront Hezbollah could spark a new civil war.
An alternative has emerged from Egypt, gaining support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan. The Egyptian framework proposes a three-phase 'organized, gradual transition' for Hezbollah: ending cross-border activities, integrating fighters into the Lebanese army, and absorbing its social services into the state. The end goal is to transform Hezbollah into an exclusively political and civilian entity. The plan also calls for reforming Lebanon's sectarian political system into a more fluid, equal power-sharing arrangement.
Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center argues that Lebanon's leaders should embrace this possibility and move beyond the binary choice of Iran or Israel. Luigi Toninelli from ISPI notes that the plan is a positive attempt at compromise, but success hinges on Iran's willingness to support disarmament and Israel's acceptance of Hezbollah fighters in the army. Faysal Itani of the Middle East Policy Council is more pessimistic, stating that Hezbollah will only disarm if it is weak and desperate—a condition not yet met. He doubts Iran will give up such a strategic asset. However, regional shifts, including US pressure on Israel and parallel diplomacy with Iran, may make the Egyptian proposal more plausible than in the past.
