UK warned of possible polar vortex breakdown and harsh winter weather
British forecasters and energy supplier British Gas are warning that a powerful El Niño could weaken the polar vortex this winter, raising the risk of severe cold, snow and storms across the UK. Residents are being urged to stock up on supplies in advance.
What's happening
UK meteorologists and energy supplier British Gas are warning that this winter could bring unusually cold and snowy weather, linked to a powerful El Niño event and a possible weakening of the polar vortex. The warnings have been reported by both the London Evening Standard and the Daily Star.
El Niño and the polar vortex
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean rise, altering atmospheric circulation worldwide. Experts warn that this year's El Niño could be one of the strongest on record. According to a research paper from the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, cited by the Evening Standard, El Niño tends to promote a breakdown of the polar vortex, especially later in winter. The polar vortex is a band of strong westerly winds circling the North Pole that normally traps cold air in the Arctic — when it weakens and becomes "wavy", cold air can spill southward into Europe and North America, bringing very cold, windy and snowy conditions.
The Daily Star labels the approaching event a "Godzilla" El Niño and quotes Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office's head of long-range forecasting, as saying he has never seen such an intense El Niño signal in forecasts, and that if it holds, 2026 could far exceed previous experience of the phenomenon's global effects. However, Dr Will Lang, the Met Office's chief forecaster, is quoted by the Daily Star as describing the outlook as merely a "subtle shift in the odds" rather than a firm prediction of colder, wetter and windier conditions.
A Met Office statement, cited by both outlets, notes that following an El Niño peak, the stratospheric polar vortex can weaken later in winter, raising the chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, which increase the potential for cold weather. Both sources stress, however, that El Niño alone does not determine exact weather outcomes, and other scenarios remain possible.
Advice for residents
According to the Evening Standard, British Gas is urging households to prepare for potentially heavy snowfall by keeping at least three days' worth of food and essentials on hand, including medicines, drinking water, non-perishable food and extra blankets. Other recommendations include improving home insulation, protecting pipes from freezing, checking a car's brakes, heater, tyres and windscreen wipers, and keeping the fuel tank at least half full during snowy conditions. The company also advises checking in on elderly or vulnerable relatives and neighbours to make sure they have what they need.
