Edward Lucas: Where Has Germany's Deterrence Skill Gone?
Analyst Edward Lucas argues that recent Russia-linked sabotage attempts expose Germany's inability to effectively prevent such attacks. He contrasts the current situation with the country's Cold War-era response to domestic terrorism.
Edward Lucas, an adviser at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, writes in Delfi that Germany is struggling to respond to sabotage attempts linked to Russia. He points to information revealed last month about a near-catastrophic attack targeting Leipzig airport.
Two men are suspected in the case: a Russian citizen with ties to Russia's GRU military intelligence agency, and a Belarusian citizen. The Russian national entered Germany from Turkey and later traveled to Serbia; he had already been identified as linked to the GRU upon arrival, but German authorities lacked the resources to keep him under surveillance.
The Belarusian citizen, whose identity is not disclosed under German privacy law, reached Germany via Latvia. There is no information about ties to intelligence services, but he has a criminal record in Lithuania and Finland. Lucas notes that in both cases, the question arises why such individuals were allowed to enter the Schengen area at all.
According to available information, the suspects planned to plant around 1.8 kilograms of powerful plastic explosive on drones targeting a Ukrainian cargo plane carrying 25,000 liters of aviation fuel. A devastating fire was averted only by chance.
A comparison with the Cold War experience
Lucas recalls that in the 1970s and 80s, West Germany faced the far-left Baader-Meinhof Group, also known as the Red Army Faction, which carried out bombings, shootings and kidnappings against military and industrial targets. At the time, authorities responded with strict surveillance, extensive search operations and expanded anti-terrorism legislation.
However, Lucas notes that the group, despite receiving some support from East Germany's Stasi secret police, was not an existential threat to the state. He argues that the current wave of Russian state-sponsored terrorism sweeping across Europe is a far more serious phenomenon than that earlier domestic threat.
