Lula da Silva Wins Brazil's Presidential Election, Securing a Fourth Term
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a fourth term on Sunday, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the electoral court said. The result surprised observers, as it ran against the polls.
Brazil's 80-year-old president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, won a fourth term in Sunday's presidential election, the country's electoral court announced. In the runoff he defeated Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The outcome was unexpected, as it contradicted polling and halted a run of right-wing election victories across Latin America.
Flavio Bolsonaro had come first in the opening round and hoped to revive his father's far-right movement. Lula is the first candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s to be elected after finishing second in the first round.
How he won
Pollsters say higher-than-expected turnout helped Lula. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of the consultancy Think Policy, said voters chose the familiar over the novel. During the campaign Lula highlighted falling poverty and inequality, and record lows in unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation during his third term. He warned that Bolsonaro would cut welfare spending and hand Brazil's sovereignty to US President Donald Trump. Late in the race, Lula pledged free public transport nationwide on weekends and a 15% increase in his flagship welfare program.
A difficult new term
Lula's fourth term may be his hardest. Brazil has elected its most conservative Congress since the 1980s: Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) and its allies could control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 in the Senate. Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, predicts Lula will be a "lame duck" from the start, and points to possible difficulties over Supreme Court nominations and even the threat of impeachment.
Economic challenges
The government forecasts just 2.3% growth next year, while public debt has risen above 82% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic. Goldman Sachs expects only modest progress in containing spending. Economists are also concerned about surging household debt.
