Lula da Silva wins Brazil's presidential runoff

Brazil, the most significant country in South and Latin America, held the second round of its presidential election last weekend. It was won by incumbent President Lula da Silva, an 80-year-old left-wing veteran politician, who received 51.8% of the vote. He is the first candidate in the country's electoral history to win the runoff after finishing only second in the first round. The result gives him a fourth term as president.

The favourite lost

Before the vote, Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, was regarded as the clear favourite. However, Lula da Silva managed to turn the campaign in his favour at the last moment.

According to the author of the commentary, the victory was helped by outreach to various groups of undecided voters and by mobilising people who did not vote in the first round. Willingness to compromise and an emphasis on reconciliation in society also mattered, contrasting with Bolsonaro's uncompromising approach. Although most of the third-placed candidates from the first round publicly backed Bolsonaro, three quarters of their voters supported Lula da Silva in the runoff.

The commentary argues that the result shows the power of political campaigns built on information technology, as used by Bolsonaro's team, has been overestimated, and that traditional forms of communication remain important.

An uncertain situation

Flavio Bolsonaro still refuses to accept defeat, so domestic political tension in Brazil is likely to continue, and attempts to "restore justice" by undemocratic means are possible. Lula da Silva will also have to work with a highly diverse parliament in which his supporters do not hold a majority.

International significance

The author considers the win welcome news for countries of the Global South and less pleasing for the United States. It also allows the assumption that the region's swing to the right may be nearing its end.