Martin Mölder: The possible cost of an easy political victory for Estonia's opposition

Estonia's opposition parties are heading for an easy win in the next elections, but the cost of that victory could be severe difficulties in governing afterward, writes political analyst Martin Mölder in an opinion piece. He draws a parallel to the concept of a Pyrrhic victory—a win that comes at such a high cost that it may lead to ruin.

Mölder notes that Estonia is currently in an exceptional political situation where the government lacks the support of the electorate. However, Estonians have remained calm, as they did during past economic crises, simply waiting for the next elections. The governing parties had opportunities to reverse their decline but failed to take them. The Reform Party could have saved itself if Kaja Kallas had stepped down in autumn 2023 as President Alar Karis suggested. Eesti 200 could have avoided collapse by apologizing for the Johanna-Maria Lehtme scandal and replacing its leadership entirely.

According to polls by Norstat and the Institute for Social Studies, combined support for the governing parties has been below 20 percent for the past year and below 40 percent for two and a half years. The normal range is 40–50 percent. Since autumn 2023, fewer than 30 percent of voters approve of the government's performance, and even fewer approve of the prime minister.

This distrust has spread beyond voters to the media and public discourse. Media coverage has become more critical, and issues like security surveillance and major projects such as Rail Baltic and the green transition are no longer considered "sacred cows." Mölder warns that sustained distrust may have ingrained cynicism toward governance itself. The next government, regardless of its composition, will face the challenge of governing a population that has been trained by the current administration to be distrustful. Rebuilding trust will be difficult.