Melnis: Russia cannot launch a direct attack on NATO at this time

Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis has provided a clear assessment of the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO. He emphasized that a direct conventional military attack is not possible at present, and this conclusion is not merely meant to calm the public.

Russia stuck in Ukraine

Melnis argued that Russia is stuck in the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is successfully fighting, destroying both Russian logistics and long-range targets, preventing Russia from advancing its attacks further. To organize a massive attack on NATO, Russia would have to move forces from Ukraine, form units near the Baltics, and launch an attack. NATO would detect such moves well in advance. Moreover, if Russia did so, Ukraine would gain greater opportunities to conduct its own operations, which Russia cannot afford.

Two fronts – a strategic mistake

The minister stressed that Russia cannot afford to fight on two fronts – that would be a strategic loss. The attack on Ukraine itself is already a strategic mistake and miscalculation. Therefore, Russia will not be able to do anything similar in the near future.

Preparedness for provocations

Regarding possible provocations, Melnis noted that they are already happening – for example, illegal immigration. Russia may also carry out other types of provocations, but Latvia's military and internal security services are ready to respond. “There will be no little green men flying around, nor will drones be flying,” he said. If threat indicators appear, the services will be able to neutralize them.

Future threats

Melnis acknowledged that Russia will rebuild its army in the future, which is why NATO is making its forces stronger to be able to stop and, if necessary, defeat Russia. He added that one cannot get inside the head of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, but Latvia is preparing for both provocations and national defense.