Melnis: Direct Russian Attack on NATO Currently Impossible; Latvia Ready for Provocations

Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis said in an interview with LETA that a direct conventional military attack by Russia on NATO is not possible at present. He emphasized that this assessment is not merely to calm the public, but is based on the current situation.

Melnis explained that Russia is stuck in the war in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces are successfully destroying Russian logistics and conducting strikes on distant targets, preventing Russia from advancing further. To mount a massive attack on NATO, Russia would need to redeploy forces from Ukraine, form units near the Baltic states, and launch an offensive. Such moves would be detected by NATO well in advance. Moreover, if Russia did so, it would open up greater opportunities for Ukrainian operations, which Russia cannot afford.

According to the minister, Russia cannot fight on two fronts — the attack on Ukraine is already a strategic mistake. Therefore, a similar attack on NATO is not expected in the near future. Melnis acknowledged that Russia is already conducting provocations, such as facilitating illegal immigration, and may employ other hybrid tactics.

Latvia's armed forces and internal security services are ready to respond, the minister assured. “There will be no little green men walking around, and no drones flying. If there is a drone, we will destroy it; if there are little green men, the internal security services and the State Security Service will arrest or neutralize them,” he stated.

Looking ahead, Melnis noted that Russia will rebuild its army, but NATO is already strengthening its forces to be able to stop and, if necessary, defeat any potential future threat. “But can we get inside Putin’s head? No. We must be prepared,” he added.