Meta's Prediction Market App 'Arena' Gets Green Light from Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg has given the go-ahead for Meta to develop a prediction market app called “Arena,” initially operating without real money as a points-based game, with the possibility of adding monetary betting later.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is betting big on prediction markets and has greenlit the development of a dedicated smartphone app internally dubbed “Arena.” The New York Times first reported on the initiative, which sources describe as “experimental but a top priority.” The app will operate independently of Meta’s existing social media platforms, though those services could direct users to Arena. In a twist, the initial version will not involve real money. Instead, it will function like a video game where users earn points for correctly forecasting outcomes on various topics. Sources indicate that a monetary component could be introduced at a later stage.
Prediction markets have boomed over the past year, generating massive trading volumes and controversy. By April, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw trading volumes reach tens of billions of dollars. Other social networks, including X (which partnered with Polymarket last summer), have also sought to capitalize on the trend.
The surge in popularity has been accompanied by legal challenges. A notable case involves a former high-ranking special forces soldier accused of using insider knowledge to profit from the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Additionally, former U.S. Representative George Santos is under investigation over alleged Kalshi trades. Several U.S. states have sued prediction markets, claiming they violate gambling laws. Complicating matters, the current administration—which is strongly pro-prediction market—has retaliated by suing those states for their lawsuits against the platforms.
