NATO's top commander to warn Russia in Warsaw over alliance's ability to counter an attack

US General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, is expected to warn Russia on Monday, 12 October, about the alliance's ability to counter any attack. He will speak at a security conference in Warsaw, the Polish capital. NATO officials say he will set out his "theory of victory" in the event of a potential attack, at a time of growing concern about the threat posed by Moscow.

What the "theory of victory" involves

Colonel Martin O'Donnell, the general's spokesman, said last week that the concept is simple: maintain NATO's advantage, grounded in the alliance's deterrence and defence plans. Given the unsettled global security environment, he said, conditions must be set now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked.

NATO, founded after World War II to counter the Soviet Union, traditionally keeps its defence plans closely guarded. Grynkewich's address is therefore unlikely to reveal many new details. It is intended both to send a signal to Moscow and to reassure members on the alliance's eastern flank. NATO insists it remains a defensive alliance and has no intention of attacking Russia.

Hybrid attacks

Western officials say Russia is running a "hybrid" campaign of sabotage and interference against countries backing Ukraine in the war. Fears have increased in recent months after high-profile incidents, including the discovery of an explosive-laden drone at a German airport. Officials say the attacks have become more reckless as Russian forces are stalled in Ukraine, and that they risk causing significant loss of life. The alliance, whose main purpose is deterring an armed Russian invasion, has struggled to decide how to respond to incidents in the grey zone below open conflict.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged countries to keep "calm, carry on and support Ukraine". Last month he said the West should not be naive about Russia, but that Moscow knows NATO is stronger.

Europe's vulnerability

The rise in Russian activity comes at a potentially vulnerable moment for Europe. Allies are bracing for possible cuts to US forces on the continent while the Pentagon reviews its deployments, with results expected towards the end of the year. European countries are already rushing to strengthen their militaries amid soaring doubts over the reliability of the United States under President Donald Trump.