Vague promise: Trump hints Ukraine may be allowed to manufacture Patriot missiles

At the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine may be allowed to manufacture Patriot missile interceptors to counter Russian ballistic attacks. The promise was framed vaguely, and Trump admitted he had not spoken to Lockheed Martin and RTX Corporation, the companies that produce the Patriot system. It also remained unclear how quickly production of the expensive and complex munitions could be ramped up.

Sitting next to Zelenskyy, Trump said: "A little birdie told me this, about the fact that we'll give them the right to make Patriots. We'll show them how to do it, it's very complex actually. But it's – you'll figure out the complexity quickly." He clarified: "We're going to give a license to you to make Patriots. This way, you can't complain that we're not giving them enough." However, Trump indicated that the US would not be able to supply Ukraine quickly with Patriot interceptors from its own stockpile due to shortages. "We have Patriots, but we don't have that many. We need them for ourselves too," he said.

There is a global shortage of Patriot interceptors, partly due to the running down of stockpiles by Ukraine and Gulf states involved in the US-Israel war on Iran. Each interceptor costs about $3 million. Until recently, the US was producing no more than 60 per month, though that number has recently increased. Even at the current increased rate, the US is not expected to replenish its own stockpile until 2028. This makes it extremely unlikely that Ukraine could deploy locally-produced Patriot interceptors anytime soon.

George Beebe, a former senior Russia analyst at the CIA now director of the grand strategy program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the "US decision to license Ukraine's production of Patriot … will do little to fix Ukraine's urgent air defense problems." He added: "The United States and Europe have no missiles to spare … the conflict with Iran has badly depleted US and European stocks … Russia is firing close to 100 ballistic missiles at Ukraine each month, and the pace is intensifying. The US only manufactures about 50 Patriots each month for itself and all its allies and partners."

Beebe noted that building a production facility in Ukraine would take many months, and Russia would attack it as soon as the first cornerstone is laid. To protect construction, Ukraine would have to divert many existing Patriot batteries from current locations, and the license could expose Patriot technology to Russian intelligence collection.

Perhaps more significant was the tenor of Trump's bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit, which was much warmer than some previous encounters. Trump praised Zelenskyy for his willingness to reach a deal on ending the fighting, saying the Ukrainian president has "done an amazing job" and "been very effective" in the war. Trump added that they have developed a good relationship and that he believed a deal on ending the war was on the horizon, with the US working on "some kind of security package" for Ukraine.