Iran deal presents political nightmare for Netanyahu

The US ceasefire agreement with Iran has presented Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a political nightmare, smashing three cornerstones of his political career: his close ties to Washington, his tough stance on Iran, and his image as Israel's 'Mr. Security'.

US President Donald Trump publicly accused Netanyahu of showing no judgement when ordering a strike on Beirut over the weekend. This assessment has been seized upon by political rivals and media commentators focused on the upcoming election. However, pressure also comes from members of Netanyahu's own Likud party and far-right cabinet ministers.

Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote on social media that 'Trump's agreement does not bind us' and that Israel is not a partner to this agreement, which he says does not ensure its security. Likud lawmaker Ariel Kallner stated Israel will continue to protect itself and expects allies to understand.

Former Mossad official Sima Shine criticised the US for allowing Iran to decide what will happen in Lebanon, giving Iran the opportunity to continue supporting Hezbollah. She noted that Israel is unhappy with this.

Netanyahu's silence has been read as a sign of difficulty. His long-standing security image is under threat. After the devastating Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023, he shifted to a more aggressive approach, but Hamas still controls half of Gaza, while Israeli forces occupy large areas of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

Security analyst Danny Citrinowicz argues that Israel must reassess its strategy towards Tehran, as any military move perceived as sabotaging the agreement would likely face a harsh US response. Netanyahu now faces the choice of confrontation or surrender with an ally.