Nigeria's once-dominant PDP party edges toward collapse

Nigeria's Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which governed the country for 16 years after the return of democracy in 1999, is now facing the prospect of political irrelevance as campaigning for January's general election gets under way.

The PDP held the presidency from 1999 to 2015 under leaders including Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan, while also controlling most of the country's 36 states. That dominance ended in 2015, when the party lost the presidency to the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), marking the start of a long decline.

A crisis deepens

The situation worsened dramatically in 2025. The PDP began the year holding eight states, but by December five state governors had defected to the ruling APC, citing the party's weakening prospects. Early this year the PDP still held three states, but it has since lost all of them, with Oyo state slipping away just last month.

The party has also lost prominent figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who departed last year. A bitter leadership struggle has compounded the crisis: in November 2025 one faction held a national convention that expelled senior PDP figure Nyesom Wike, who currently serves in President Bola Tinubu's APC-led government. Wike, one of the party's founders, now leads a rival faction, and courts have recognised his group as the legitimate party — meaning only his faction has been able to submit candidate lists to the electoral commission.

Uncertain path back

Some loyalists remain hopeful, pointing to examples from Thailand and Argentina where parties recovered after years out of power, and suggesting the PDP could rebuild strength by 2032. Others note the party still retains a grassroots network of local offices and supporters. However, analysts argue the party's best chance of survival may lie in forming an alliance with other opposition groups, since it is unlikely to succeed alone.