NYT obtains purported Russian plan to disable Ukraine's entire power grid

The New York Times has obtained a document that purportedly outlines a Russian Defense Ministry plan to disable Ukraine's entire energy system. According to sources cited by the newspaper, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal showed the document to two European politicians in late September. The Times separately obtained its own copy of the Russian-language document, though it was unable to confirm its authenticity.

A three-stage campaign

The plan reportedly calls for a large-scale assault using various missile types, guided aerial bombs, and drones, including jet-powered models, carried out in three stages. The first stage targets substations along Ukraine's western border to block electricity imports from Europe. The second focuses on hydroelectric power plants. The third strikes substations feeding the three nuclear power plants still under Ukrainian control — Russia already occupies a fourth, the Zaporizhzhia plant.

The campaign's stated goal is to cut electricity, heat, and water to major Ukrainian cities in order to trigger a humanitarian crisis. Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa are named as the primary targets, with plans to reduce their electricity and heat supplies by 90% and knock out a significant share of their sewage systems.

Capacity losses ahead of winter

The document indicates Russia intends to destroy nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity — close to what Ukraine had at the end of summer 2026. In August, Shmyhal told parliament that Ukraine expected to reach 21 gigawatts of capacity by year's end, enough to cover peak winter demand, which hit 18 gigawatts last winter. Experts told the Times that continued Russian strikes could undermine this effort to build capacity before winter.

The report comes as Russian forces, on October 1, deliberately struck a bridge over the Dnipro River in Kyiv for the first time since the full-scale invasion began, hitting it with drones three times that day. The following morning, the Southern Bridge was closed to traffic while the Paton and Metro bridges faced restrictions, causing major traffic jams across the capital.