NYT: Russia Plans to Cripple Energy Supply in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa Within a Month
According to The New York Times, an intercepted Russian plan envisages massive strikes on Ukraine's energy system to cut electricity, heating and water in its three largest cities. Ukraine's air defence is strained by a shortage of interceptor missiles.
Russia plans to carry out large-scale strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure within about a month, aiming to cut off electricity, heating and water supplies in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. The U.S. newspaper The New York Times (NYT) reports this, citing an intercepted Russian plan. If implemented, the cities could lose up to 90% of their power capacity, and would also face serious disruption to water supply and sewage services as the cold season approaches.
Forces earmarked
According to the report, the Russian military intends to use roughly 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided aerial bombs. An analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data suggests this roughly matches the monthly average of missiles and drones that manage to penetrate Ukraine's air defences. Moscow reportedly hopes to achieve within a month what it has failed to do over the past four winters.
Ukraine's vulnerability
Ukrainian officials and analysts interviewed by the NYT say the risks have grown because Ukraine's air defences are being depleted, Russia's arsenal of missiles and drones is expanding, and energy infrastructure remains vulnerable. One of the main problems is a shortage of American-made interceptors for Patriot systems, which are used against ballistic missiles. Ukraine's military has learned to shoot down many Russian drones, but new jet-powered drones create additional difficulties. For example, on 14 October the Ukrainian Air Force reported that only four of 39 ballistic missiles launched that day were destroyed; a significant share targeted energy facilities.
Earlier reports
Radio Liberty, citing its own sources, previously reported on a Russian document outlining a plan to disrupt Ukraine's energy sector. It names four main lines of attack: power generation and supply, water supply, sewage and heating. It identifies 60 priority targets, including ten large hydroelectric plants and nuclear power plants. Other planned targets include thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, substations, boiler houses, wastewater treatment facilities and pumping stations.
