NYT: Russia plans winter campaign of up to 1,000 missiles and bombs against Ukraine's energy grid

The New York Times reported on October 2 that Russia is preparing its most extensive campaign yet against Ukraine's critical infrastructure this winter. The report is based on a Russian document intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence, a copy of which has been shared with European partners.

Scale of the planned strikes

According to the document, the campaign could involve up to 1,000 missiles, drones and aerial bombs. Targets reportedly include electricity substations, hydroelectric plants, thermal power stations and boiler houses that supply heating to cities.

Threats to nuclear plants and water systems

The document also reportedly outlines a plan to halt operations at all three of Ukraine's currently functioning nuclear power plants, by striking the distribution substations that connect them to the national grid. Separately, attacks on water infrastructure are planned, targeting pumping stations and treatment facilities with dozens of ballistic missiles and aerial bombs.

Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as main targets

The document names Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as the primary targets. Under the described scenario, electricity and heating availability in these cities could drop by as much as 90%, while sewage systems would be severely disrupted. Such a scenario could trigger a large-scale humanitarian crisis.

Ukraine's preparations

Ukraine is already taking steps to mitigate the potential impact, building protective structures over critical infrastructure sites. Residents, many of whom endured prolonged power and heating outages last winter, are stockpiling power banks and small gas heaters in advance.