OPEC+ Holds November Oil Output Targets Steady
OPEC+'s seven core members decided on Sunday to keep November production targets unchanged, as export disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran continue to constrain output. Analysts say the oil market remains tight despite the group's output increases this year staying largely on paper.
Seven core members of OPEC+ — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — agreed in a brief online meeting on Sunday to leave November production targets unchanged. The decision matched market expectations, with further policy adjustments unlikely before next year.
Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below their output targets in recent months due to ongoing export disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the group of seven kept production ceilings unchanged in line with expectations, but noted that despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, actual output remains well below quota — keeping the oil market tight.
Prices and background
Oil prices fell on Friday after European leaders agreed to a request from U.S. President Donald Trump to release diesel reserves. Even so, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, up sharply from about $73 before the Iran war began in late February.
The Iran war has also delayed OPEC+'s output capacity review, which is crucial for setting 2027 production quotas, since the conflict has made it harder to estimate members' future production potential.
While OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 following years of production cuts, most of the increases have remained largely theoretical because of the Middle East conflict. The seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, but still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels seen in February.
OPEC+ still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place covering most members. The group needs the capacity review results before deciding how to distribute future increases, and any changes to output are considered unlikely before 2027. The seven core members' next meeting is set for Nov. 1.
