Study: Spain could overtake France as world's top tourist destination by 2040
A study by Google and Deloitte forecasts that Spain will surpass France as the world's most visited country by 2040, even as rapid tourist growth already fuels tension among local residents.
For years France has held the title of the world's most visited country, but that status may not last. According to a study by Google and Deloitte, Spain is projected to become the world's most popular tourist destination by 2040.
The forecast estimates that Spain will welcome around 110 million international visitors annually by 2040, compared to roughly 105 million for France — narrowing the gap between the two countries to just a few million visitors a year.
Growth already underway
Spain is already closing in on this milestone. In 2025 the country recorded a record number of foreign visitors, at around 97 million. Its appeal rests not only on sunny weather and beaches, but also on well-developed transport links, its food scene, cultural offerings and the wide variety of destinations within the country.
Shifts elsewhere in the rankings
The study also points to changes further down the list of top destinations. Behind Spain and France, the top five is expected to include the United States, China and Mexico, while Italy — traditionally among the most visited countries — could slip to sixth place. Interest in Middle Eastern destinations is also rising, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both projected to break into the world's top 15 most-visited destinations by 2040.
The downside of growth
Spain's potential rise to the top of global tourism also carries drawbacks. In several popular cities and resorts, residents have already staged protests against mass tourism, citing rising housing costs, the spread of short-term rentals and overcrowded public spaces. As a result, Spain's biggest challenge in the coming years may not be attracting more visitors, but managing the sheer volume of tourists it already receives.
