Study: Fan Travel Causes 80% of World Cup Emissions

A new study from the University of Cambridge proposes a framework for assessing the climate viability of mega-events such as the FIFA World Cup and major music tours. Published in the journal Communications Sustainability, the research compares the consumer welfare gains of these events with their greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the research team, expanding the 2026 World Cup to a 48-team format is expected to add roughly 590,000 metric tons of emissions compared to the previous 32-team tournament. Total emissions are estimated at 4.23 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with 82% attributable to fan travel. International travel alone accounts for about 3.07 million metric tons. That total is comparable to Iceland's annual emissions.

If these climate costs were passed directly to spectators, each match ticket would cost an additional $114 on average. Applying the same framework to Coldplay's 2024 European tour (10 cities, 32 shows, 1.9 million tickets), the climate cost without mitigation would be $11 per ticket.

Coldplay implemented measures to reduce emissions from staging the shows, including mobile battery systems, solar power, and a kinetic dancefloor. However, the researchers estimate that about 98% of the tour's emissions reductions came from fans voluntarily changing their travel habits. The band offered a dedicated app for comparing low-carbon transport options and provided merchandise discounts for fans who traveled sustainably. As a result, fan travel emissions fell by 48%, and overall tour emissions were cut by 46% compared to a typical tour.

The researchers propose a two-stage economic framework. First, the economic benefits to organizers and spectators are weighed against emission costs. If costs exceed benefits, the event should be scaled back, redesigned, or canceled. For both the World Cup and Coldplay tour, benefits exceeded climate costs, but the researchers note that for the World Cup, this may not hold if the social cost of carbon is high.

The second stage involves incorporating climate damage costs into the event's overall costs. The team argues that organizers should cover direct emissions from venues and staging, while indirect emissions from fan travel should be shared between organizers and fans. Suggested measures include discounts for low-carbon travel, selecting host cities that minimize travel distances, and adjusting ticket prices. The researchers also note that a flat carbon levy on tickets would disproportionately burden lower-priced ticket buyers, so higher-priced tickets should bear a larger share. Additionally, a broadcasting fee of $4.50 per viewer could offset the World Cup's estimated total carbon cost of $787 million.