Polish PM warns critical months ahead over Russian threat

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on Friday that the next few months could be critical given the changing nature of the war and the threat from Russia. He emphasized that concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic states and that Poland is preparing for 'various' scenarios, but urged not to be afraid while staying aware.

Tusk's comments followed media reports that Moscow, based on US intelligence, is planning an armed 'provocation' in Poland to test NATO's resolve. Polish news outlet Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki said the US had issued several warnings to Warsaw about a plot to attack the country. Under the purported plans, also published by the UK's Telegraph, Polish infrastructure could be targeted by missiles or drones, or soldiers could be sent into the NATO state. The aim would be to pressure Ukraine's Western allies into suspending aid to Kyiv.

Tusk acknowledged that Poland is aware of the threats thanks to information from allies and is preparing for various situations. He noted that concerns about Russian aggression are especially acute in the Baltic states. In June, Lithuania's ambassador to NATO said Russia is more likely to resort to hybrid warfare, such as missile or drone incursions, rather than a conventional military attack. Meanwhile, Latvian media reported in June that its intelligence services had warned Moscow was planning military provocations in the region or in Poland.

Polish President Karol Nawrocki is set to attend a NATO summit in Turkey next week, where leaders are expected to pledge continued funding for weapons for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the gathering will show Europeans are heeding US President Donald Trump's calls to increase defence spending. Tusk told the Financial Times in April that Russia could attack a NATO member state in 'months'. In late June, his Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski told CBS News he would not rule out a Russian 'false flag' operation within the next two years to justify an attack on a NATO state.

NATO's Article 5 states that an armed attack against one member will be considered an attack against all, for which they will come to each other's defence.