Political scientist Skudra: AfD's rise in Germany reflects a lasting trend, not a one-off vote

On the TV24 programme “Globuss”, historian and political scientist Ojārs Skudra discussed the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, arguing it should not be seen as a one-time electoral event but as a long-running trend with potentially significant consequences for Germany and Europe.

Votes have roughly doubled

Skudra noted that in Saxony-Anhalt, AfD's vote count has roughly doubled compared to the 2021 election. The party in that state is led by Ulrich Siegmund, who has served in the state parliament since 2016 and is now a candidate to head the state government.

According to Skudra, a key detail is that AfD emerged as the strongest party in Saxony-Anhalt across nearly all age groups and professional categories, indicating broad and varied support across society. For that reason, he suggested viewing AfD not merely as a party but as a movement whose reach extends across all of Germany.

Leading in national polls

Recent nationwide polling suggests that if Bundestag elections were held now, AfD would win around 29% of the vote — more than the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens and the Left party combined lead individually.

Skudra highlighted that a large share of AfD's new supporters in Saxony-Anhalt came from people who had not previously voted, as well as from former Christian Democrat voters who switched allegiance.

A systemic problem

The political scientist concluded that this trend points to a deeper crisis within Germany's political and institutional system, which is increasingly struggling to keep pace with contemporary challenges, including rapid technological change. This inability to adapt, he said, is creating fertile ground for the growth of new political forces, AfD among them.